Envisioned topics and contents

This outline is indicative only, and still under elaboration. A more precise and definitive outline will be released before the Spring School.

Course outline proposal

The following outline is voluntarily not very specific. Its main purpose is to illustrate the scientific objective of the School, while remaining sufficiently open in order to make specific content choices with the potentially interested contributors.

The various blocks described below are mandatory, but the specific content is open to modifications. Part of this content is offered to make the block objective more explicit, but the bullet point list is open in all blocks. Conversely, the relatively short time available to cover such a broad subject and variety of topics requires to make choices. These will be made by the contributors in agreement with the scientific committee, keeping to guiding lines in mind:

• A focus on systemic and critical thinking within the proposed epistemic framework
• An as tight as possible integration between the various modules

Introduction (1h to 1:30 h)

• Global course organization and planning. Brief overview of the content and concepts
• Overview of epistemological/methodological approach as a critical tool (30 to 45 min.)
• Framing the main debates/polemics

1. Historical Perspective – Where we come from (4h)

a. Organizational principle

• Civilizational perspective on the long term, keeping in mind the course red thread (critique of Anthropocene World Views and narratives)

b. Proposed outline

• Introduction of Anthropocene concept and ~200 years historical perspective (from industrial revolution) with a special focus on the last 50/60 years (Great Acceleration and associated  demographic & economic growth questions, etc)  
• Overview of the collapse concept and various definitions
• Contributions of archeology and history on the long term history (birth and death of civilisations, interactions of societies with their “natural environment”)  
• Present development path (as characterized earlier) and contradiction with confrontation to limits 

2. Global Change & Environmental limits – Where we are (3h)

a. Organizational principle

• Thematic/sectoral overview with emphasis on sectoral interactions/retroactions and dynamic perspective
• Overview logics : socio-environmental drivers, state, evolution, interactions etc

b. Proposed outline

• Global change overview ( e.g., climate change ; biodiversity ; biogeochemical cycles including carbon, water, nitrogen, etc. ; land use with specific sectoral and geographical examples) and their inter-relations; 
• Planetary limits & ecological footprint and their conceptual limitations
• Transversal issue focuses : e.g.,
  • food security/water and associated conflicts
  • non-renewable resources supply & use; associated pollution & conflicts
  • Emphasis on systemic/dynamic perspective on these issues

3. Sociopolitical and sociotechnical lock-ins, vulnerabilities and conflicts – Where we are (6h)

a. Organizational principle

• Path dependency / vulnerabilities from systemic perspective
• How do the various disciplines deal with the conflict between standard economic growth and associated development patterns, and the confrontation to planetary limits? 
• Emphasis on spatial and temporal scale issues

b. Proposed outline

• Economic / socio technical lock-ins (economics, economical sociology?). Possible examples: 
  • Agro-industry?
  • Energy supply vs production/consumption (infra)structure?
  • Mobility and infrastructure?
  • Growth-debt & finance lock-in?
• Nation-State competition lock-in (international) / socio political lock-in (intra-national) (political science, political sociology, political philosophy, history?). Possible examples:
  • Geopolitical resource competition / military-industrial lobby and underdevelopment issues?
  • Resource curse
  • Political institutions: democratic vs oligarchic lock-in?
  • Inequalities: intra- vs international & associated conflicts?
• Other?

4. Narratives of the future – Critique of where we believe we may go (6h)

a. Organizational principle

• Use of examples of narratives from the past to illustrate the different narratives.
• Narratives: mention proposed implementation pathways where relevant
• Critique: emphasize systemic perspective as well as self-assessment of the critique validity and limits.

b. Proposed outline

• Attitudes and narratives with respect to limits and lock-ins with example(s) in each category:
  • Techno-Optimism : ability to push or transcend limits (cornucopianism or transhumanism)
  • Collapse :  inability to cope with limits
  • Sustainability middle path : managing society within limits
  • Possible 2 axis analysis grids of the 4 classes :
    • Collaborative vs Competitive
    • Local vs Global
  • Others? Other classes? Other analysis grids? 
  • Possibly, use SRES / SSP narratives from IPCC, keeping in mind that climate change is not the only issue
• Critiques – Systemic / socio-environmental / other limits to narratives

• Philosophical/anthropological analyses and critiques, including critique of determinism
• Environmental sciences support or limits to sustainability narrative(s) 
• vulnerabilities: global systemic risks perception, conceptualization, analysis, blind spots
• Nexus Interdependencies exemplification (e.g. energy / finance / food production and intensification / logistics) and scenarios
• Lock-ins (refer to section 3?)
• Critical assessment of these points
• Bias brought by communication society

5. Models of the future (4h)

a. Organizational principle

• Models as ways to illustrate and flesh out narratives of the future
• Models strengths and limits
• Sectorial vs systemic view

b. Proposed outline

• Models vs views vs foresight
• What are models used for?
  • optimizing VS simulating
  • qualitative formalization of pre-analytic conceptions of the world
  • Risk assessment and decision making under uncertainties and lack of consensus
• Analysis and critique of specific models associated to narratives (possible examples: Dice? World3? IMAGE?  PIK? IMACLIM? WITCH? C-ROADS? etc)
• Critique of these approaches: Model simplification vs reality complexity, etc

Conclusion (1h)

• Perspective and discussion of alternatives absent from dominant narratives: political, socio-technical, sustainability discourse, etc. Strengths and blind spots (as a workshop)
• Other